Signatures of transmission and importation in tuberculosis cluster size data in England
Abstract:
Tuberculosis (TB) rates in England have decreased from 16 cases per 100,000 persons in 2011 to 11 cases per 100,000 persons in 2015. Together with falling rates in UK-born children and a reduction in cases with matching strain types, this suggests a reduction in local transmission risk. However, such indicators do not provide a measure of the number of cases that could be prevented by controlling transmission. In England, approximately 50% of TB cases are associated with a genotype. We are using these strain-typing data, together with a mathematical model of TB cluster generation, to infer local transmission parameters and establish the potential impact of transmission-focused control measures.
Contact
Ellen Brooks Pollock (Bristol University): cmmid@seminar