Real-time monitoring and short-term forecasting of the COVID-19 pandemic
Real-time monitoring and short-term forecasting of infectious diseases facilitate situational awareness and can inform public health planning. One prominent way to monitor ongoing outbreaks is via the reproduction number R.
In this talk, Dr Sebastian Funk will describe an ongoing effort to track R globally and discuss the practical and statistical challenges in estimating R, from uncertainty in underlying parameters, biases in the data used for estimation, and uncertain delays in the infection and reporting process. He will further explore the link between R and short-term forecasts of the outbreak trajectory and discuss limitations in the ability to make forecasts in the longer term.
About the speaker
Sebastian’s work revolves around statistical methods, often using mathematical models of infectious disease dynamics, applied to questions around public health. He is interested in the emergence, evolution and spread of infectious diseases, with a particular interest in the dynamic interaction of diseases with behavioural, societal and environmental factors, as well as strategies for disease eradication.
Please note that the recording link will be made available afterwards
LSHTM's response to COVID-19
LSHTM experts are involved in many different aspects of COVID-19 research as well as providing guidance to those responding around the globe every day. Find out about our latest research, news, events and free online courses on the outbreak.
Subscribe to our new LSHTM Viral podcast to hear the latest science behind the coronavirus outbreak and the global response to COVID-19. You can listen to LSHTM Viral wherever you get your podcasts: , , , , , , , , , .
There cannot be any complacency as to the need for global action. With your help, we can plug critical gaps in the understanding of COVID-19. This will support global response efforts and help to save lives around the world. Support LSHTM's COVID-19 Response Fund.
Admission
Contact
