What we do
The focus of the real-time outbreak analysis theme is the use of mathematical and statistical models and data to provide real-time insights into ongoing outbreaks, such as estimating key epidemiological parameters, making short-term forecasts and evaluating intervention strategies.
Theme members have contributed research to several outbreaks, including:
- the COVID-19 pandemic
- the 2018-20 Ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo
- the ongoing cholera outbreak in Yemen
Research is done in collaboration with partners such as the WHO, the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC), M茅decins sans Fronti猫res (MSF) and the UK Public Health Rapid Support Team, which is jointly run by Public Health England and LSHTM.
Theme events
Members of the theme meet on a monthly basis on the third Tuesday of the month, 14:00-15:00 UK time.
All interested are welcome to attend. Contact the theme coordinators Sophie Meakin and James Munday for details.
Papers and other outputs are shared through the .
Selected outputs
Real-time analysis theme members have contributed to many aspects of real-time outbreak analysis, including journal papers, data curation and software development. Below are a selection of these outputs:
- , coordinated in collaboration with the European Centre for Disease Control (ECDC).
- Davies, Nicholas G., Sam Abbott, Rosanna C. Barnard, Christopher I. Jarvis, Adam J. Kucharski, James D. Munday, Carl AB Pearson et al. . Science 372, no. 6538 (2021).
- Palmer, J., Sherratt, K., Martin-Nielsen, R., Bevan, J., Gibbs, H., Funk, S., Abbott, S. and CMMID COVID-19 Working Group, 2021. . Journal of Open Source Software, 6(63), p.3290.
- Quilty, Billy J., Samuel Clifford, Joel Hellewell, Timothy W. Russell, Adam J. Kucharski, Stefan Flasche, W. John Edmunds et al. . The Lancet Public Health 6, no. 3 (2021): e175-e183.
- Munday, J.D., Jarvis, C.I., Gimma, A. et al. . BMC Med 19, 233 (2021).
- Endo, A., Centre for the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases COVID-19 Working Group, Leclerc, Q. J., Knight, G. M., Medley, G. F., Atkins, K. E., Funk, S., & Kucharski, A. J. (2021). . Wellcome open research, 5, 239.
- Camacho, A., Bouhenia, M., Alyusfi, R., Alkohlani, A., Naji, M.A.M., de Radigu猫s, X., Abubakar, A.M., Almoalmi, A., Seguin, C., Sagrado, M.J. and Poncin, M., 2018. . The Lancet Global Health, 6(6), pp.e680-e690.
- Finger, F., Funk, S., White, K., Siddiqui, R., Edmunds, W.J. and Kucharski, A.J., 2018. bioRxiv, p.388645.